WRT the quadrennial cycle, this is what concerns me: “Plus, keep in mind, that’s only an average. Since 2009, the Nasdaq 100 has surged more than 26.6% in the first year of this cycle. And they only time they’ve fallen in this part of the cycle for more than two decades was all the way back in 2001…”
Personally, I see a lot more similarities between the current market and the lead up to the epic bear market in the early 2000s than I see differences. Well, as always we will see, and we’re all adults, so let’s make our bets!!
And that’s something I was going to touch on in a future article. (This one was long enough)
When we look at AI, the AI names, and how they’ve performed, becoming outsized weights on the indexes, it’s very similar to the late 1990s.
If you didn’t have AI and/or crypto in your portfolio in 2024, you probably underperformed.
Now, we will enter the “trough of disillusionment.” That moment of recognition when all the future promises of AI are further off than first thought… and there will be a massive repricing.
Is that 2025? Or 2026? Or 2027?
It’s hard to pinpoint a date. But I do believe it is sooner rather than later. Though 2025 may be too soon.
Matthew, I always enjoy your articles.
WRT the quadrennial cycle, this is what concerns me: “Plus, keep in mind, that’s only an average. Since 2009, the Nasdaq 100 has surged more than 26.6% in the first year of this cycle. And they only time they’ve fallen in this part of the cycle for more than two decades was all the way back in 2001…”
Personally, I see a lot more similarities between the current market and the lead up to the epic bear market in the early 2000s than I see differences. Well, as always we will see, and we’re all adults, so let’s make our bets!!
Happy New Year, Matthew.
Thank you Michael!
And that’s something I was going to touch on in a future article. (This one was long enough)
When we look at AI, the AI names, and how they’ve performed, becoming outsized weights on the indexes, it’s very similar to the late 1990s.
If you didn’t have AI and/or crypto in your portfolio in 2024, you probably underperformed.
Now, we will enter the “trough of disillusionment.” That moment of recognition when all the future promises of AI are further off than first thought… and there will be a massive repricing.
Is that 2025? Or 2026? Or 2027?
It’s hard to pinpoint a date. But I do believe it is sooner rather than later. Though 2025 may be too soon.
This was a timely and helpful Article. I am paying close attention. Thank you!
Thank you for reading!