3 Tesla Trends to Tackle On the farm, “false spring” is in full bloom. A week ago, the temperatures were in the teens, and we were blanketed under several inches of snow. On Friday, it was 71 degrees. And nature is finding itself a might bit confused. My wife and I had lunch on the deck – short sleeves and no shoes – and watched a fat-bottomed bumble bee search for flowers whose blossoms aren’t due until months from now.
Hi Matthew - interesting article. My POV is that the EV craze is peaking. So, I view TSLA as continuing to be risky. I made a lot of money with you when you were at Oxford, and for that I think you.
Thanks Michael! Well, I'll outline more in the coming weeks, but I have rejoined Oxford Club kind of... albeit with one of the international arms. And I will be at IU in February, though I won't be presenting. But maybe I will get the opportunity at some Private Wealth seminars later this year! We'll see! And hopefully I'll see some of you there!
Also, I get the "EV craze peaking" feeling. But keep in mind, in Europe, they've implemented plans to ban internal combustion engines by 2030-2035. And there are pushes to reduce CO2 and greenhouse gases globally. A lot of people will be shifted over to EVs by regulatory changes. So, that is a long-term trend to keep in an eye, whether with Telsa, BYD, VW, Ford or someone else.
Hi Matthew, thanks for responding. It’s rather a cryptic comment you’ve made wrt rejoining Oxford kind of…I would be gratified to benefit from your knowledge once again. If possible, could I DM you on X, or on here to get more detail?
As for EVs, and European mandates - I live in Europe, in the Czech Republic. I think there is a growing political groundswell that will culminate in a lot of these governments being thrown out of office by the electorate if they don’t abandon Net Zero goals. There are popular uprisings in every country which is trying to rush to Net Zero (which is an insane policy in my view and unsupported by ACTUAL science). Between trying to get the personal auto fleet to all electric, and the attempt to force people to buy expensive, inefficient heat pumps rather than repairing or replacing their gas boilers, it is dawning on everyone in Europe that their quality of life will be terrible if these government mandates are fully implemented. And, just looking at Germany as one of the “leaders” in this push, the minute their source of cheap gas was cut off, they started pulling coal out of the ground and burning it. I am highly sceptical of the future for EVs.
Sorry, I know that response was vague. I joined Oxford Club Japan as the Chief Investment Strategist back in November. So, it's technically not Oxford Club, but an international affiliate/partner. But I also serve as a liaison between Alex and Marc and the Japanese market (write commentary, conduct video interviews with them, etc.). So, I work closely with the Oxford Club. I also run my Dynamic Fortunes service, but it's called Cycle Alert in Japan.
As for EVs... I share your skepticism. GM this morning forecast that EV sales will rise from 7% to 10% in the U.S. The tipping point is considered 16% (that's where it crosses the threshold into mainstream). But GM also made all of its profits off the sale of SUVs.
Part of me also is concerned that EVs are the plastic bottles/containers of the modern age. We were told that glass and metal cans were bad for the environment, that plastic was the way of the future. Now, microplastics have infected every part of the ecosystem and are the bane of our existence. On top of that, most plastics produced are single-use and not recyclable... which is why companies are shifting back to bottles and aluminum cans.
With EVs, the pollution cost is paid up front in terms of mining. Almost none of which is done in the U.S. But we also don't know the end-of-life costs for EV batteries and components. So, there is a part of me that is very skeptical. I have concerns that in 20 years or so, mass adoption of EVs will be viewed with regret... same as the mass push for "plastic everything."
Hi Matthew - interesting article. My POV is that the EV craze is peaking. So, I view TSLA as continuing to be risky. I made a lot of money with you when you were at Oxford, and for that I think you.
Thanks Michael! Well, I'll outline more in the coming weeks, but I have rejoined Oxford Club kind of... albeit with one of the international arms. And I will be at IU in February, though I won't be presenting. But maybe I will get the opportunity at some Private Wealth seminars later this year! We'll see! And hopefully I'll see some of you there!
Also, I get the "EV craze peaking" feeling. But keep in mind, in Europe, they've implemented plans to ban internal combustion engines by 2030-2035. And there are pushes to reduce CO2 and greenhouse gases globally. A lot of people will be shifted over to EVs by regulatory changes. So, that is a long-term trend to keep in an eye, whether with Telsa, BYD, VW, Ford or someone else.
Hi Matthew, thanks for responding. It’s rather a cryptic comment you’ve made wrt rejoining Oxford kind of…I would be gratified to benefit from your knowledge once again. If possible, could I DM you on X, or on here to get more detail?
As for EVs, and European mandates - I live in Europe, in the Czech Republic. I think there is a growing political groundswell that will culminate in a lot of these governments being thrown out of office by the electorate if they don’t abandon Net Zero goals. There are popular uprisings in every country which is trying to rush to Net Zero (which is an insane policy in my view and unsupported by ACTUAL science). Between trying to get the personal auto fleet to all electric, and the attempt to force people to buy expensive, inefficient heat pumps rather than repairing or replacing their gas boilers, it is dawning on everyone in Europe that their quality of life will be terrible if these government mandates are fully implemented. And, just looking at Germany as one of the “leaders” in this push, the minute their source of cheap gas was cut off, they started pulling coal out of the ground and burning it. I am highly sceptical of the future for EVs.
Sorry, I know that response was vague. I joined Oxford Club Japan as the Chief Investment Strategist back in November. So, it's technically not Oxford Club, but an international affiliate/partner. But I also serve as a liaison between Alex and Marc and the Japanese market (write commentary, conduct video interviews with them, etc.). So, I work closely with the Oxford Club. I also run my Dynamic Fortunes service, but it's called Cycle Alert in Japan.
As for EVs... I share your skepticism. GM this morning forecast that EV sales will rise from 7% to 10% in the U.S. The tipping point is considered 16% (that's where it crosses the threshold into mainstream). But GM also made all of its profits off the sale of SUVs.
Part of me also is concerned that EVs are the plastic bottles/containers of the modern age. We were told that glass and metal cans were bad for the environment, that plastic was the way of the future. Now, microplastics have infected every part of the ecosystem and are the bane of our existence. On top of that, most plastics produced are single-use and not recyclable... which is why companies are shifting back to bottles and aluminum cans.
With EVs, the pollution cost is paid up front in terms of mining. Almost none of which is done in the U.S. But we also don't know the end-of-life costs for EV batteries and components. So, there is a part of me that is very skeptical. I have concerns that in 20 years or so, mass adoption of EVs will be viewed with regret... same as the mass push for "plastic everything."